DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/29 11:10
All Grains Higher at Midday
Wheat is the upside midday leader after corn and beans backed off their
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow index down 200. The interest
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 points lower. Energies are
lower with crude down $1.10. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals
are mixed with gold up $4.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with chart follow-through buying
and weather concerns over coming weak outside markets due to the Greece issues.
Weather forecasts and actual weather will continue to be the driver following
the big report day on Tuesday. Ethanol margins are under pressure from the corn
rally and crude weakness. The Eastern Belt was the primary recipient of
excessive rains over the weekend. On the December chart support is now the
200-day moving average at $4.02 that trade was able to move above Friday. The
weekly export inspections were solid at 1.04 million metric tons. The weekly
crop progress report is expected to show conditions down slightly. The average
trade guess for the June 1 stocks number set for release on at 11 a.m. Tuesday
morning is 4.557 billion bushels with a range of 4.35-4.7 billion versus 3.852
a year ago. The June Planting Intentions average trade guess is 89.13 million
acres versus 89.2 on the March number. The range of expectations is 88.1 to
Soybean trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with soybeans overcoming
early weakness to follow the corn and wheat trade higher. Meal is $1 to $2
higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Wet weather in the middle of the
country has limited planting progress, but some late beans likely got in over
the weekend. The weekly export inspections were ok at 298,860 metric ton range.
The weekly crop progress report is expected to show planting and emergence
behind normal, and crop conditions down slightly. On the November chart, the
200-day moving average at $9.70 is now support with $10.00 being resistance
which we traded through briefly. The average trade guess for the June 1 stocks
is 679 million versus 405 million a year ago, the range of estimates is
604-770. The planted acreage number is 85.33 million versus the 84.64 million
acres, so the unplanted number of acres is a bigger deal than the net change
from the March report.
Wheat trade is 15 to 24 cents higher at midday with wet weather domestic
concerns and some dry weather concerns internationally. Harvest progress should
continue to improve on the KC wheat, but Chicago wheat will be slowed again by
the recent rains. On the chart, July wheat now has support at the $5.42 level,
where we find the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving average at $5.69
is the next level of resistance, which are just above at midday. The weekly
export inspections were 316,515 metric tons, and crop conditions are expected
to be steady for spring wheat, and harvest progress nearing 35% for wheat. The
average trade guess for the June 1 wheat stocks is 712 million bushels versus
590 million a year ago, the range of estimates is 650-765 million. The
all-wheat acreage estimate is 55.7 million acres versus 55.37 in March.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Advisor.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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