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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/19 11:00

   Corn, Beans Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is mixed at midday with the higher protein wheat leading the 
upside and beans the downside.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 60. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 27 higher. Energies are mixed with 
crude oil down 0.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with 
gold down $4. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with light selling dominating the 
early trade due to the negative chart action yesterday and good yield comments. 
The crop tour continues to move along with generally good potential being 
found. The warmer weather this week should help to advance maturity ahead of 
the cool down next week. Ethanol margins remain solid, but weaker energy prices 
have trimmed margins a bit. The weekly crop progress report listed 70% of the 
crop in the dough stage versus the 63% average and 22% is dented versus the 27% 
average and 10% last year. Illinois was noted at 34% dented. Crop ratings 
slipped 1 percentage point to 72% good to excellent which is still up from 61% 
last year. That is neutral versus expectations but seasonally declining 
conditions is normal, and considering we are now in the back half of August, 
ratings over 70% good to excellent are historically exceptional. On the 
December chart support is at $3.70 where we find both the 10-day and 20-day 
moving average and we are just below that area at midday. Further support is at 
the low at $3.58. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 15 cents lower at midday following a ratings increase 
Monday afternoon. The September contract again gaining on new crop. Meal is $5 
to $6 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Early pod counts have been 
mixed on the crop tour with more room for the weather to influence yields. 
Weather looks improved for soybeans in the near term but the rain will have to 
fall soon in some of the areas. Old-crop supply tightness should keep the 
September contract active, but expectations for a big new crop harvest has 
limited upside bounces. The weekly crop progress report listed 83% of the crop 
setting pods versus the 79% average and 70% last year. The weekly soybean 
conditions improved by 1 percentage point to 71% good to excellent; this is up 
from 62% last year. On the chart trade will need to get positive closes above 
the 10-day moving average at $10.65 and $10.72 to turn the chart more positive. 
Support is at the $10.38 low printed on last week; expect sell stops below this 


   Wheat trade is 4 to 11 cents higher across the three contracts at midday 
with the higher-protein grades leading the upside due to quality concerns. The 
dollar remains near one-year highs keeping pressure on commodities in general, 
but if wheat can overcome the strength for a positive finish today it will be 
encouraging. The Russian/Ukraine situation has been quieter, but that can 
change at any moment. The weekly crop progress report listed 17% of the spring 
wheat harvested versus the 33% average; some rains had harvest activity slow 
today. The crop condition did slip by 2 percentage points to 68%. Support is 
the $6.00 area on the Kansas City chart again with the Chicago contract back 
above $5.40.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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